My previous strategy saw me suffer a $10k loss. So I went back to the drawing board, read up more and came back with a new strategy.
So far, I'm 14 trades for 14. Not too bad. So let's start documenting the process.
1. Choosing Pairs. Using IG trading, I trade only 4 pairs with the best spreads - AUD/USD (0.6 pips), EUR/GBP (0.9 pips), EUR/USD (0.6 pips) and USD/JPY (0.7 pips). The spreads do change at different times, so I only trade when the spreads are as such.
2. Ride the Trend. Use a 1-day timeframe, and check EMA 20, 50, 100. I will only trade in the same direction as all three.
3. Watch for Levels. At the same time, I ensure I'm not at a support/resistance level in opposition to the trend.
4. Taking Profit. I trade without a stop loss. However to reduce the margin required, I give an exorbitant stop loss (say 50 pips). I put a limit of 1 pip. Sure this kills my risk-reward ratio - but my objective in this strategy is a high win-rate.
The reason why I'm using this strategy, is because while I still believe in the previous one, it requires more time than I have to analyse. With this current 1-pip strategy, it's a fire-and-forget 5 minute endeavour. So let's see where it goes. Remember, there are no bad trades, only bad systems.
Yours,
X
Thursday, November 23, 2017
Wednesday, August 16, 2017
17 Aug 2017
Lost 2500, made 3100. 3 trades.
Got caught by a ranging market for the loss of 2500. I then checked to see if support or resistance was broken, it wasn't. So I traded opposite to the trend, and made 2000 in one trade when it hit the resistance, traded opposite again knowing that if RSI 70 was hit again, I'd take loss and go with the trend. But my guess was that we're still in a trending market since yesterday saw some pretty big moves. Made 1000 on that 3rd trade and decided 500 profit today was enough. I'll just wait for the next signal, check if support or resistance was broken, and go accordingly. Still gotta make up for that big loss yesterday! Haha...
Yours,
X
Got caught by a ranging market for the loss of 2500. I then checked to see if support or resistance was broken, it wasn't. So I traded opposite to the trend, and made 2000 in one trade when it hit the resistance, traded opposite again knowing that if RSI 70 was hit again, I'd take loss and go with the trend. But my guess was that we're still in a trending market since yesterday saw some pretty big moves. Made 1000 on that 3rd trade and decided 500 profit today was enough. I'll just wait for the next signal, check if support or resistance was broken, and go accordingly. Still gotta make up for that big loss yesterday! Haha...
Yours,
X
16 Aug 2017
Lost 4800, made 1800.
Finally. Got caught in a ranging market. So had 4 losing trades before the big move came. While I managed to catch it, I was greedy. Profit was at 3800 but I shifted my stop up to a 1800 take profit, and tried to wait for it to run till I covered all my losses. Ended up getting stop hunted, and missed out on an even larger run.
This means that a) I should identify ranging markets better and b) take profit at about 20 pips.
Yours,
X
Finally. Got caught in a ranging market. So had 4 losing trades before the big move came. While I managed to catch it, I was greedy. Profit was at 3800 but I shifted my stop up to a 1800 take profit, and tried to wait for it to run till I covered all my losses. Ended up getting stop hunted, and missed out on an even larger run.
This means that a) I should identify ranging markets better and b) take profit at about 20 pips.
Yours,
X
Monday, August 14, 2017
15 Aug 2017
Lost 255, made 1600. 4 trades. And the loss was because I deviated from the strategy. At RSI 30, I checked the trend and it looked like it was ranging. So I called it, but it shot back to another RSI 30, so I closed it out and sold, made 10 pips for an overall profit of about 1300 today. Target met, don't be (too) greedy.
Yours,
X
Yours,
X
Sunday, August 13, 2017
New Strategy - Take those losses!
Been trading about a week using my latest strategy on a demo account. Results have been promising. With an initial capital of 23k:
10 Aug - lost 700, made 3100
11 Aug - made 500
14 Aug - lost 1400, made 3100
Early days yet I know but still, really promising. And with fewer than 10 trades a day.
Key assumptions:
Trend is your friend. I stopped using EMA6 as my trend indicator. I now use RSI-1min. And when it's RSI-1 30, I go short. Logic being that when RSI-1 hits 30, RSI-5 should hit 30 too, and so on and so forth.
This also allows me to trade without stops which is awesome cos I reduce the risk of fakeouts. I simply close my position when the rsi-1 hits 70/30 and take the losses, but enter an immediate trade in the new direction.
This is why I make the big losses. I then let it run if RSI-1 continues in the trending direction. I take profit when my daily target is met (500-1000 profit).
The biggest risk is that I could simply be taking loss after loss in a trending market. This is something I've been trying to counter. The current rudimentary method is if it bounces between rsi-1 30 and 70 twice, I wait out for a double run in one direction before entering the trade, using that as an indicator that support/resistance levels have broken.
If this works out over the next year, I think we might be in serious business!
Yours,
X
10 Aug - lost 700, made 3100
11 Aug - made 500
14 Aug - lost 1400, made 3100
Early days yet I know but still, really promising. And with fewer than 10 trades a day.
Key assumptions:
Trend is your friend. I stopped using EMA6 as my trend indicator. I now use RSI-1min. And when it's RSI-1 30, I go short. Logic being that when RSI-1 hits 30, RSI-5 should hit 30 too, and so on and so forth.
This also allows me to trade without stops which is awesome cos I reduce the risk of fakeouts. I simply close my position when the rsi-1 hits 70/30 and take the losses, but enter an immediate trade in the new direction.
This is why I make the big losses. I then let it run if RSI-1 continues in the trending direction. I take profit when my daily target is met (500-1000 profit).
The biggest risk is that I could simply be taking loss after loss in a trending market. This is something I've been trying to counter. The current rudimentary method is if it bounces between rsi-1 30 and 70 twice, I wait out for a double run in one direction before entering the trade, using that as an indicator that support/resistance levels have broken.
If this works out over the next year, I think we might be in serious business!
Yours,
X
Sunday, July 30, 2017
Strategy
So after all these months, I've come to the conclusion that trading needs to be relatively full time. My strategy would be as such:
1. Check master direction on 4hr timeframe using EMA6.
2. Enter trade in same direction on 15min timeframe using EMA6
3. Exit trade once 15min timeframe EMA6 goes in opposite direction of master direction, regardless of profit or loss.
4. Use money management 20% of capital. Risk reward ratio irrelevant as exit is dependent on EMA6.
When I get to try this is another matter altogether. Sigh.
Yours,
X
1. Check master direction on 4hr timeframe using EMA6.
2. Enter trade in same direction on 15min timeframe using EMA6
3. Exit trade once 15min timeframe EMA6 goes in opposite direction of master direction, regardless of profit or loss.
4. Use money management 20% of capital. Risk reward ratio irrelevant as exit is dependent on EMA6.
When I get to try this is another matter altogether. Sigh.
Yours,
X
Monday, July 17, 2017
18 Jul 2017 - 0.788
Wow. This is really incredible. I'm down almost 100 pips now. But the strength of the AUD is really amazing. I guess I'll just hold till my positions get closed. The cardinal rule of trading - never trade what you can't afford to lose. As long as you stick to that, you're always gonna be in a safe zone.
Looks like my high probability small gains strategy isn't really cutting it. Oh wells. Till the next time :)
Yours,
X
Looks like my high probability small gains strategy isn't really cutting it. Oh wells. Till the next time :)
Yours,
X
18 Jul 2017 - 0.783
So the downtrend was strong in the middle of the night. I went short at 0.7786. I had checked the calender forecast on IG as well and there was nothing. But at 0930, massive spike up! Befuddled and now I'm 30 pips down. Haha. But we'll, I'm happy I'm holding a short position and not a long one. We'll see where this goes. In the meantime, NO TRADING BEFORE 0930 EVER!!! On the AUD that is...
Yours,
X
Yours,
X
17 Jul 2017 - 0.781
3 easy pips (1 pip per trade) today, all going short when EMA6 showed a strong downtrend. $1,088.
I realise that by trading without a stop loss, I have a terrible risk-reward ratio. As such, I'm not going to make money from risk/money management. But I realize that the higher the ratio, the lower the probability of winning trades. It's not simply 50% of trades that you'll win/lose. Well since I'm going all out with this final capital, I'll stick to the current strategy.
Yours,
X
I realise that by trading without a stop loss, I have a terrible risk-reward ratio. As such, I'm not going to make money from risk/money management. But I realize that the higher the ratio, the lower the probability of winning trades. It's not simply 50% of trades that you'll win/lose. Well since I'm going all out with this final capital, I'll stick to the current strategy.
Yours,
X
Friday, July 14, 2017
14 Jul 2017 - 0.776
It's incredible how high this is rising. Wonder when the drop will happen. That being said, I'm still wary of following the trend and would rather stick to the retracements. Got in again at 0.7752 for another pip shorting. Bounced back to 0.776, but hey I'd already scalped my pip. $1,072 now.
Yours,
X
Yours,
X
Thursday, July 13, 2017
14 Jul 2017 - 0.775
Oh man. Really hitting the highs today. Got prompted by a 1min RSI30, checked it out, saw a 5min RSI downtrend, went in at 0.77529, and got out within the next 5 mins. $1,066 now.
Yours,
X
Yours,
X
14 Jul 2017 - 0.774
Woah. It just keeps going up. If I'd gone with the direction of 15 60 240, I'd have made easy pickings today. But after my last regret of going long during RSI highs, I decided to wait out for a slight short trend. In fact, using the 1min period can be a trigger since RSI's really overbought, so I went short at 0.7742 as it retraced from 0.7744, and hit my target pretty soon. $1062 now.
Yours,
X
Yours,
X
Wednesday, July 12, 2017
13 Jul 2017 - 0.769
Lost a big bunch once again. Down 4k. It feels like staring all day could still work, but I'm not able to do that.
Maybe with my new knowledge of EMA6 trends on the 240, 60 and 15min charts, I can go back to my previous strategy of making 1 pip a day. This would generate about 100% returns a year thereabouts which is not too bad. Starting off with $1050 today, let's track this journey.
Just made my first pip ($6), so tgt met for the day. $1056. Maybe can do several entries as well. Today I aim to go short (cos it really is topping out), but only with a strong EMA6 downtrend on 15 and 60min, or go long on a strong EMA6 uptrend AFTER a downtrend, which is the long term strategy - go in the direction of all 3 trends.
Yours,
X
Maybe with my new knowledge of EMA6 trends on the 240, 60 and 15min charts, I can go back to my previous strategy of making 1 pip a day. This would generate about 100% returns a year thereabouts which is not too bad. Starting off with $1050 today, let's track this journey.
Just made my first pip ($6), so tgt met for the day. $1056. Maybe can do several entries as well. Today I aim to go short (cos it really is topping out), but only with a strong EMA6 downtrend on 15 and 60min, or go long on a strong EMA6 uptrend AFTER a downtrend, which is the long term strategy - go in the direction of all 3 trends.
Yours,
X
Tuesday, June 13, 2017
13 Jun 2017 - 0.752
Well the past week it's been ranging from 0.756 to 0.752. My margin call has been going from -$500 to breakeven. Still on a $1900 paper loss. Waiting out.
Yours,
X
Yours,
X
Friday, June 9, 2017
9 Jun 2017 - Accumulation
So massive accumulation/consolidation going on now at 0.753. I'm still in a margin call of abt 200, means equity loss has been at around $2,000 for the past day. Still, no choice but to hold out all the way. I do think it's headed down, with the trend heading south and a couple of spikes which I see as stop hunts, so we'll see.
Yours,
X
Yours,
X
Tuesday, June 6, 2017
7 Jun 2017 - Post GDP Release
Oh boy. Massive 30 pip spike from 0.75 to O.753. I'm in a margin call now. But thinking like a market maker means thinking that I can accumulate a heck of a lotta sell orders cos the masses are gonna be thinking "it's going up!" so I'm gonna hold out a bit more. Let's hope I don't get auto-closed.
Yours,
X
Yours,
X
7 Jun 2017 - Australian GDP Release
So big day today. GDP is expected to drive AUD down which bodes well for me. That's in 1 hr's time. After selling at 0.747 yesterday, I thought I'd gotten it right when it dipped to 0.745. Rebounded last night though to 0.75 though. But I still think all the signs for a long downward trend is in the pipeline.
1. About 3 days of gains, with accumulation at 0.748-0.75
2. Market makers would know that a low GDP forecast would drive prices down.
3. 4hr RSI at 70.
Let's wait it out and see. If it spikes however, I'll hedge and attempt to make back the losses again. Let's see how prices react to the release.
Yours,
X
1. About 3 days of gains, with accumulation at 0.748-0.75
2. Market makers would know that a low GDP forecast would drive prices down.
3. 4hr RSI at 70.
Let's wait it out and see. If it spikes however, I'll hedge and attempt to make back the losses again. Let's see how prices react to the release.
Yours,
X
Monday, June 5, 2017
6 Jun 2017 - Rebound
So after dropping to 0.746,there was a bounce to 0.749. 30 pip loss for me, but hey, I still smell a stop hunt, so no hedging let's wait it out.
Yours,
X
Yours,
X
6 Jun 2017 AUD/USD Predicted
So the aud/usd was ranging ard 0.748. I closed a position last night at 0.7477. Turns out at night it spiked to nearly 0.75, but came back down to 0.748. I smelt stop hunt. So I closed out all my long positions at 0.7484. Now I'm stuck with my $1.50 short at ard 0.739. Is this the day the market makers are going to make their move?
Well, indeed a massive 20 pip drop to 0.746 right now! Made back $500 on paper. Equity at $4500 now. I'm gonna wait out this sustained run (hopefully) and see if that's gonna return me to above $5250 which was my previous equity high. Or I might just close all positions at 0.74. We'll see!
Yours,
X
Well, indeed a massive 20 pip drop to 0.746 right now! Made back $500 on paper. Equity at $4500 now. I'm gonna wait out this sustained run (hopefully) and see if that's gonna return me to above $5250 which was my previous equity high. Or I might just close all positions at 0.74. We'll see!
Yours,
X
Market Maker Method
As mentioned in the previous post, the idea of stop hunting is pretty big to me now. I'm kinda moving towards the Market Maker Method. This past weekend saw me predict the huge jump on the AUD/USD from 0.739. Only problem is noob trader that I am put in a hedge order that somehow got triggered. I then put a limit on that at zero profit, waiting for the stop hunt, which didn't come. Then I saw a bounce off an EMA, and decided to put in two positions for up and down with a 1 pip limit, just to see if some quick money could be made. But the problem is that the stop hunt didn't come, and the long sustained run did. Again, noob trader that I was decided to wait for the second stop hunt before getting in again, which I did at $1 at 0.7449. Was up 5 pips and a stop hunt occurred again. Lost my nerve and closed out $0.50 at 0.7451 for a little profit. But now it's up to 0.747 and I'm like "shouldn't have hedged!!" But well, for trading to be sustainable, it means mistakes must be able to be made, and to be recovered from right?
So another really great indicator to look out for - ranging at 4hr-RSI30/70. Prime for a big move. Let's wait out for the next one :)
Yours,
X
So another really great indicator to look out for - ranging at 4hr-RSI30/70. Prime for a big move. Let's wait out for the next one :)
Yours,
X
Friday, June 2, 2017
Update to Strategy
Took a lesson in patience. Couldn't wait for the bounce and put in a couple of positions based on my "reading" of the charts. I'm down a thousand now.
But no despair, let's see if I can maintain discipline. A slight update to the strategy: strike price at EMA20 or EMA6, in the direction of previous day's EMA20 or EMA6. Together with the idea of stop hunting, I believe I'm still in the game. Let's do this!
Yours,
X
But no despair, let's see if I can maintain discipline. A slight update to the strategy: strike price at EMA20 or EMA6, in the direction of previous day's EMA20 or EMA6. Together with the idea of stop hunting, I believe I'm still in the game. Let's do this!
Yours,
X
Wednesday, May 24, 2017
Long Term Strategy
Many hours of YouTube later, I'm pretty fixed on my new strategy. RSI-1mins are way too volatile. So I've stopped trading off that time frame. I stick to RSI-15min and above to trigger my trades.
Firstly though, I will determine the direction for the day. This depends on the slope of the MA6 1-day time-frame. Upward buy, downward sell. Then I'll check the economic calender to see if there any times I should be aware of to watch for slippage.
Next my price entry would be at the MA6 mark. If it doesn't hit, then I wouldn't trade. Or I could use the RSI-30/70 15MINS/1HR as the indicator.
And that's pretty much it.
The idea that big institutions eat up your stop losses is also a big change to my strategy. This accounts for the crazy spikes when you least expect it, which then return to their original price points. With the MA6 direction of the day, I keep my emotions in check and wait out the trade. I only close out or hedge if the MA6 changes direction that day.
So far this has helped me recoup $700 in losses and I'm now $190 up off a $5000 account. Let's see where this takes us!
Yours,
X
Firstly though, I will determine the direction for the day. This depends on the slope of the MA6 1-day time-frame. Upward buy, downward sell. Then I'll check the economic calender to see if there any times I should be aware of to watch for slippage.
Next my price entry would be at the MA6 mark. If it doesn't hit, then I wouldn't trade. Or I could use the RSI-30/70 15MINS/1HR as the indicator.
And that's pretty much it.
The idea that big institutions eat up your stop losses is also a big change to my strategy. This accounts for the crazy spikes when you least expect it, which then return to their original price points. With the MA6 direction of the day, I keep my emotions in check and wait out the trade. I only close out or hedge if the MA6 changes direction that day.
So far this has helped me recoup $700 in losses and I'm now $190 up off a $5000 account. Let's see where this takes us!
Yours,
X
Monday, March 27, 2017
Latest Strategy
Been continuing to read up and refine my strategy. Have come up with a pretty good one I feel:
Buy at RSI 1min 30, but only when Bollinger Band (BB) is below the default lower threshold; sell when RSI is 70 but only when BB is above the higher threshold.
Exit when tgt is met, or when RSI hits the opposite number. Can afford to keep holding if the RSI swing is still earning a profit, cos it would probably rebound again.
Yours,
X
Buy at RSI 1min 30, but only when Bollinger Band (BB) is below the default lower threshold; sell when RSI is 70 but only when BB is above the higher threshold.
Exit when tgt is met, or when RSI hits the opposite number. Can afford to keep holding if the RSI swing is still earning a profit, cos it would probably rebound again.
Yours,
X
Wednesday, March 15, 2017
16 Mar 2017 - 0.77
Wow. Today the AUD rose back above 0.77. This means that had I not closed out my position on 3 Mar, I wouldn't have lost all that money. Bittersweet feelings really. On one hand, I'm upset I didn't hold. On the other, it means my system still works! Oh well, the journey will continue another day...
Yours,
X
Yours,
X
RSI M1 Strategy
After back testing this strategy, it seems to work pretty well. Going long at 30 and short at 70, closing each position regardless when it hits 70 and 30 respectively. Let's keep testing this out.
Yours,
X
Yours,
X
Wednesday, March 8, 2017
9 Mar 2017 - Bears are at it
Whoa. 0.752 when I checked in today. We're going back down. RSI 1 day still around 40, so we might still see it heading south a little. Resistance probably at around 0.75, previously hit in Jan.
Somehow, observing as an outsider is much more peaceful. Still, I'm looking forward to the day when I've got enough spare funds to make a meaningful "comeback". Heh.
Yours,
X
Somehow, observing as an outsider is much more peaceful. Still, I'm looking forward to the day when I've got enough spare funds to make a meaningful "comeback". Heh.
Yours,
X
Tuesday, March 7, 2017
7 Mar 2017 - 0.763
So today saw the AUD recover to 0.763. Again, had I waited it out like a good boy, I could have recouped even more losses. Would've been less that a S$2k loss, i.e. an overall profit still since the start of the journey.
Still, peace of mind is priceless. And again it validates my system (so to speak), that if you can hold out, you'll probably be fine.
Yours,
X
Still, peace of mind is priceless. And again it validates my system (so to speak), that if you can hold out, you'll probably be fine.
Yours,
X
Friday, March 3, 2017
3 Mar 2017 - close
Once again, the earlier lesson learnt was not applied. Having closed out my positions at 0.754, turns out the AUD closed today at 0.759. Had I had the guts to stick to my system, at the very least I would have recouped half of my losses. A shame? Well, kind of. But in the grander scheme of things, it makes me confident that CFDs can still indeed be a viable source of income. As long as you're disciplined, and actually look at your positions while they're open, it would prevent too many heart attacks! Still, peace of mind is priceless, and I had a really good sleep last night!
Yours,
X
Yours,
X
Thursday, March 2, 2017
3 Mar 2017 - losses confirmed
AUD hit 0.75425. I went into a margin call, so decided to cut losses. Lost about S$5k in total. But with some holding power, could have trimmed that by abt S$750 as the rally finally began right then and it's back up at 0.755. But oh well, at least overall it's still not too bad. The question is whether my heart can still take this, haha!
Yours,
X
Yours,
X
3 Mar 2017 - not good
Yesterday might be an expensive lesson in discipline. I have a generic rule - no trading at home, and I generally don't like going long (due to the RSI 1 day being quite high).
However, when my resistance line alert was triggered at abt 1630hrs, I tried for a quick 2 pip limit buy at 0.76511. RSI (1 min) wasn't too good, abt 40+, but I went anyway. And it just kept dropping. Woke up today to see a huge S$5k paper loss. Well I've got abt 1k more before I end up in margin call. Overall, I'd say this investment journey is still break even as I've made some money on the stock exchange as well. So yeah, this might really be the end. We'll just have to wait and see.
Yours,
X
However, when my resistance line alert was triggered at abt 1630hrs, I tried for a quick 2 pip limit buy at 0.76511. RSI (1 min) wasn't too good, abt 40+, but I went anyway. And it just kept dropping. Woke up today to see a huge S$5k paper loss. Well I've got abt 1k more before I end up in margin call. Overall, I'd say this investment journey is still break even as I've made some money on the stock exchange as well. So yeah, this might really be the end. We'll just have to wait and see.
Yours,
X
Wednesday, March 1, 2017
2 Mar 2017 - S$180
Woke up this morning and saw that the AUD/USD rate was at 0.768. Now I normally don't trade before 0830hrs Singapore time, cos that's when most ABS reports are released in Canberra that might cause spikes in the rates. Also the spread becomes about 1.5 pips, more than double the 0.6 that I usually trade on. However, here comes the benefit of understanding one currency pair well - I knew that the RSI (1 day) is at 60+, so that's a long term downtrend. I also knew from yesterday that it hit 0.77 for a bit, before dropping to 0.74. So 0.768 was pretty high if you ask me. I saw it drop to 0.76796 and I decided to just go for it, without checking the candles or RSI.
At the same time, I'm not that brave right - so instead of going on my usual US$5 contract, I sold a US$2 contract. Reason is this - if I'm wrong and the price spikes, I can still go in again at 0.77, and whatever earnings I make from that second position, should be able to cover the losses from the first position. And if it goes waaaay beyond 0.77, I would have lost my account anyway, so it doesn't matter.
At the same time, I didn't want to have to keep taking positions throughout the day to hit my target of S$140. So instead of my usual 2 pip take profit, I went for 6 pips instead. Should have been 5 pips based on my target, but well, if it can drop to 5 pips, it should hit 6 pips. Besides, that wouldn't have brought me near the day's low at all, so why not.
Lo and behold, 15 mins later, I got a buzz for the auto close. Kicking myself, cos if I'd gone with US$5, I would have made S$400 odd today. Kicking myself cos right now, it's at 0.7662 - so if I hadn't taken profit so early, I would have made even more - S$380 on a US$2, or S$1,350 on a US$5.
But hey, I have a plan, and I'm sticking to it. All done for the day.
Then I spotted an entry point at 0.76511. RSI (1 min) was at 30, so I bought US$5 2 pip limit. But then I had to go charge my phone and as you know by now, I don't really like buying, so I wasn't too confident just leaving it alone. I then closed the position when it broke even. When I returned to my phone later though, my 2 pip limit alert was triggered, so it was a missed opportunity, but hey yet another verification of my system. So all in all, still good :)
224 days to go.
Yours,
X
At the same time, I'm not that brave right - so instead of going on my usual US$5 contract, I sold a US$2 contract. Reason is this - if I'm wrong and the price spikes, I can still go in again at 0.77, and whatever earnings I make from that second position, should be able to cover the losses from the first position. And if it goes waaaay beyond 0.77, I would have lost my account anyway, so it doesn't matter.
At the same time, I didn't want to have to keep taking positions throughout the day to hit my target of S$140. So instead of my usual 2 pip take profit, I went for 6 pips instead. Should have been 5 pips based on my target, but well, if it can drop to 5 pips, it should hit 6 pips. Besides, that wouldn't have brought me near the day's low at all, so why not.
Lo and behold, 15 mins later, I got a buzz for the auto close. Kicking myself, cos if I'd gone with US$5, I would have made S$400 odd today. Kicking myself cos right now, it's at 0.7662 - so if I hadn't taken profit so early, I would have made even more - S$380 on a US$2, or S$1,350 on a US$5.
But hey, I have a plan, and I'm sticking to it. All done for the day.
Then I spotted an entry point at 0.76511. RSI (1 min) was at 30, so I bought US$5 2 pip limit. But then I had to go charge my phone and as you know by now, I don't really like buying, so I wasn't too confident just leaving it alone. I then closed the position when it broke even. When I returned to my phone later though, my 2 pip limit alert was triggered, so it was a missed opportunity, but hey yet another verification of my system. So all in all, still good :)
224 days to go.
Yours,
X
Tuesday, February 28, 2017
1 Mar 2017 - S$240
So after going through the initial spike, I spotted a sort of resistance line, and with the RSI (1 min) at around 60+ together with the RSI (1 day) at 60+ too, I shorted at about 0.76609. After about an hour, the position handn't closed, so I took a quick glance. Oh man! 2 crazy spikes had happened and I was facing a S$2,500 paper loss! Stuck to my guns though, believing in my system and waited it out. Presto, it dipped back down, and I got a buzz saying the position closed at 0.76589. The day is done. Or so I thought.
Suddenly received an alert that a support line (0.76550) was hit. Checked the charts and saw that it had broken clear through to 0.76432. Decided to make a quick trade and went long for 2 pips. But it being so close to the end of the day, and furthermore going long when the RSI (1 day) is high, there some slight fears. Within the minute, I saw a drop to 0.76390. Then it rebounded to 0.76444. 12 points for a S$100 profit. I decided not to wait it out for another 8 points and S$40, so I closed the position pronto. That being said, right as I'm typing this, my 2 pip limit was hit. Well no worries, I had gained peace of mind, and further verification that my system still works. So all in all, a good day still.
228 days left.
Yours,
X
Suddenly received an alert that a support line (0.76550) was hit. Checked the charts and saw that it had broken clear through to 0.76432. Decided to make a quick trade and went long for 2 pips. But it being so close to the end of the day, and furthermore going long when the RSI (1 day) is high, there some slight fears. Within the minute, I saw a drop to 0.76390. Then it rebounded to 0.76444. 12 points for a S$100 profit. I decided not to wait it out for another 8 points and S$40, so I closed the position pronto. That being said, right as I'm typing this, my 2 pip limit was hit. Well no worries, I had gained peace of mind, and further verification that my system still works. So all in all, a good day still.
228 days left.
Yours,
X
1 Mar 2017 - Positive GDP Report
Right on the money! The positive growth as released by ABS saw a 20 pip spike at 1130hrs Cranberra time. Trading via news seems to be pretty accurate, at least for GDP that is. Too bad I didn't want to try that today and stayed well out of that time period. Now to observe the stabilising trend and hit the target for the day!
Yours,
X
Yours,
X
1 Mar 2017 - GDP report
The Australian GDP report 5206.0 is slated for release in about an hour's time. The last quarter's release (contraction of 0.5%) coincided with a pretty big drop in the exchange rate against the USD. This round, analysts are predicting a positive report, so it might be a good time to go long. Still, let's wait till the release is out, and cross check against generic price action and RSI.
Yours,
X
Yours,
X
Monday, February 27, 2017
28 Feb 2017 - S$328
Today was the first day I used strategies other than price action. So I saw that the default 14-period RSI (1 min) was above 70. I checked that against the overall price action for the day and indeed it was quite high. I then waited for the RSI to drop below 60 (that's my indicator of enough downswing), then I went short, for a 2 pip limit. In 5 mins, the position was closed. Of course, an hour later, it was 8 pips lower, meaning I could have in fact made S$560. But hey, I have a plan, and I'm sticking to it.
Later in the day, I spotted an RSI (1 min) at 30. As it broke the 40 mark, I went long and bought 5 contracts with a 2 pip limit. However, because I know that the AUD/USD is at RSI 60+ (1 day), the larger overall trending is downwards. As such, I get kinda scared going long at this period in time. So when my position didn't close within 5 mins, I decided to close early at a S$50 profit, instead of waiting it out. Turns out about 20 mins later, I hit the level - but peace of mind is priceless eh.
Then at about 1700hrs, I spotted an RSI (1 min) at 70. As it broke the 60 mark, I went short and bought 5 contracts with a 2 pip limit. Am I starting to sound like a broken recorder? Well that's the point. At the same time, there was a candlestick confirmation of a trend reversal (doji with long black bar), so I was pretty confident, not to mention the RSI (1 day) hovering at 60+ 70 over the past 2 months. True enough at about 1730hrs, the position closed. Total earnings today S$328. Not too bad at all.
229 days to go.
Yours,
X
Later in the day, I spotted an RSI (1 min) at 30. As it broke the 40 mark, I went long and bought 5 contracts with a 2 pip limit. However, because I know that the AUD/USD is at RSI 60+ (1 day), the larger overall trending is downwards. As such, I get kinda scared going long at this period in time. So when my position didn't close within 5 mins, I decided to close early at a S$50 profit, instead of waiting it out. Turns out about 20 mins later, I hit the level - but peace of mind is priceless eh.
Then at about 1700hrs, I spotted an RSI (1 min) at 70. As it broke the 60 mark, I went short and bought 5 contracts with a 2 pip limit. Am I starting to sound like a broken recorder? Well that's the point. At the same time, there was a candlestick confirmation of a trend reversal (doji with long black bar), so I was pretty confident, not to mention the RSI (1 day) hovering at 60+ 70 over the past 2 months. True enough at about 1730hrs, the position closed. Total earnings today S$328. Not too bad at all.
229 days to go.
Yours,
X
27 Feb 2017 - S$140
Today AUD/USD opened around 0.76696. When I woke up, it was at around 0.76700. There seemed to be a downward trend today, so I went short i.e. sold, and closed at 0.76680. This happened within about half an hour. S$140 for the day done before 9am.
However at lunch, I saw an RSI above 70, and since I feel the long term trend of AUD/USD is going downwards, I didn't see the harm in shorting it at 0.76817. After all, that was over a 100 points since opening. Turns out however, a huge uptick was in store and it went above 0.77. This gave me a paper loss of over 200 points i.e. $1,000. However, my instincts told me to wait it out. After all, I had taken a $1,200 lesson earlier in the month. True enough, the position finally closed at about 6pm, and that was another S$140 for the day.
231 days left.
Yours,
X
However at lunch, I saw an RSI above 70, and since I feel the long term trend of AUD/USD is going downwards, I didn't see the harm in shorting it at 0.76817. After all, that was over a 100 points since opening. Turns out however, a huge uptick was in store and it went above 0.77. This gave me a paper loss of over 200 points i.e. $1,000. However, my instincts told me to wait it out. After all, I had taken a $1,200 lesson earlier in the month. True enough, the position finally closed at about 6pm, and that was another S$140 for the day.
231 days left.
Yours,
X
My Vision
So the goal is to earn S$1,000 a day through CFDs. Right now I'm at S$140 - that's cos I'm trading US$5 contracts at a 2 pip limit (my initial investment was S$15,000). How is this going to pan out?
Firstly, understanding how to trade CFDs is important. Google "candlestick patterns" for a wealth of info. Also "price action" strategies, and "RSI indicators". These are what I'm using. I also picked just one currency pair (AUD/USD), so that I'd be well acquainted with its price action, and not waste my time constantly shopping around. I'm looking to earn money, not really super big money, so it's ok if I miss out on opportunities elsewhere. I'm also aware of the Australian Bureau of Statistics Calendar and that it's announcements are usually at 1130hrs Canberra time (0830hrs in Singapore, but 0930hrs from 2 Apr 2017 onwards due to daylight savings), so I'll usually wait an hour after that to trade in case there are crazy jumps in the exchange rate due to the news. It's also because it was the most affordable margin at S$2,200 per dollar contract on IG. I chose IG as my platform cos of its tight spread (0.6 pips) on AUD/USD, and the fact that it's regulated by MAS.
Next, I use a strategy of taking profit based on limits. The benefits of this is that I don't have to keep staring at the charts all day. Once I open a position, I leave it open till it closes. Some might call it risky, but so far it's been working great.
My CFD journey began on 9 Feb 2017. With an initial investment of $15,000, I made S$1,400 in ten days. But then, I began doubting my system and when I hit a paper loss of S$1,200 one day, I closed it out. This gave me a profit of S$200 in ten days. Still not too bad I thought - until my limit level was hit the next day (I realised this cos my earlier alert was triggered) - and that was my $1,200 lesson. Since then, I've never closed out a losing position, even going so far as to run a S$2,000 paper loss, pay S$50 in overnight fees, and finally ended up with a winning position. That was a long wait, but a rewarding one, affirming my overall strategy and understanding of my chosen forex pair AUD/USD.
So exactly when do I foresee me hitting my goal? Well, if everything pans out, this should happen in 231 weekdays' time. Here's how:
Currently, I'm trading $5 contracts. My safezone is S$3,200 per contract, which gives me a 70 pip (or 700 points) balance to ensure I don't enter a margin call. This means that for a US$5 contract, I need S$5 x 2,200 + $5 X 1000 in my account, i.e. S$16,000. At a profit of S$140 a day, I'll hit S$3,200 in 23 days. That's when I'll up it to a US$6 contract i.e. profit of $168 per day. Then that's gonna take me 19 days to hit S$3,200, before I up it to a US$7 contract. And so on and so forth. So if you do the math, I'm 231 days away from a US$36 contract, which at 2 pips a day gives you S$36 x 20 x 1.4 = S$1,008
Watch this space as I chart my journey to financial freedom!
Edit: If you've seen some of my later posts, you'll know that I've changed my trading system due to some massive losses. I'm now scalping 5 to 10 pips instead (since 9 Feb 18), with 2 rules on entry to prevent overloading. First, only trading at 2359hrs on Mondays, Tuesdays or Wednesdays, and only in the direction of a double bar. Second entry condition is that I also trade in the overall trend direction if I notice an equilibrium that day. So far this system works because I can take losses and still remain profitable (unlike my previous strategy), plus I don't have to constantly observe the charts if I don't have time. This strategy has seen me achieve my biggest gain so far (50% as of Apr 2018), and though that dropped down, I'm still profitable after 3 months of trading (longest record ever). The goal is to achieve 100% returns in a year, then I'll put in some serious-er cash (current capital investment of $250).
Edit 2: Again, I've changed up my strategy countlessly. Just check out the more recent posts, haha...
Yours,
X
Firstly, understanding how to trade CFDs is important. Google "candlestick patterns" for a wealth of info. Also "price action" strategies, and "RSI indicators". These are what I'm using. I also picked just one currency pair (AUD/USD), so that I'd be well acquainted with its price action, and not waste my time constantly shopping around. I'm looking to earn money, not really super big money, so it's ok if I miss out on opportunities elsewhere. I'm also aware of the Australian Bureau of Statistics Calendar and that it's announcements are usually at 1130hrs Canberra time (0830hrs in Singapore, but 0930hrs from 2 Apr 2017 onwards due to daylight savings), so I'll usually wait an hour after that to trade in case there are crazy jumps in the exchange rate due to the news. It's also because it was the most affordable margin at S$2,200 per dollar contract on IG. I chose IG as my platform cos of its tight spread (0.6 pips) on AUD/USD, and the fact that it's regulated by MAS.
Next, I use a strategy of taking profit based on limits. The benefits of this is that I don't have to keep staring at the charts all day. Once I open a position, I leave it open till it closes. Some might call it risky, but so far it's been working great.
My CFD journey began on 9 Feb 2017. With an initial investment of $15,000, I made S$1,400 in ten days. But then, I began doubting my system and when I hit a paper loss of S$1,200 one day, I closed it out. This gave me a profit of S$200 in ten days. Still not too bad I thought - until my limit level was hit the next day (I realised this cos my earlier alert was triggered) - and that was my $1,200 lesson. Since then, I've never closed out a losing position, even going so far as to run a S$2,000 paper loss, pay S$50 in overnight fees, and finally ended up with a winning position. That was a long wait, but a rewarding one, affirming my overall strategy and understanding of my chosen forex pair AUD/USD.
So exactly when do I foresee me hitting my goal? Well, if everything pans out, this should happen in 231 weekdays' time. Here's how:
Currently, I'm trading $5 contracts. My safezone is S$3,200 per contract, which gives me a 70 pip (or 700 points) balance to ensure I don't enter a margin call. This means that for a US$5 contract, I need S$5 x 2,200 + $5 X 1000 in my account, i.e. S$16,000. At a profit of S$140 a day, I'll hit S$3,200 in 23 days. That's when I'll up it to a US$6 contract i.e. profit of $168 per day. Then that's gonna take me 19 days to hit S$3,200, before I up it to a US$7 contract. And so on and so forth. So if you do the math, I'm 231 days away from a US$36 contract, which at 2 pips a day gives you S$36 x 20 x 1.4 = S$1,008
Watch this space as I chart my journey to financial freedom!
Edit: If you've seen some of my later posts, you'll know that I've changed my trading system due to some massive losses. I'm now scalping 5 to 10 pips instead (since 9 Feb 18), with 2 rules on entry to prevent overloading. First, only trading at 2359hrs on Mondays, Tuesdays or Wednesdays, and only in the direction of a double bar. Second entry condition is that I also trade in the overall trend direction if I notice an equilibrium that day. So far this system works because I can take losses and still remain profitable (unlike my previous strategy), plus I don't have to constantly observe the charts if I don't have time. This strategy has seen me achieve my biggest gain so far (50% as of Apr 2018), and though that dropped down, I'm still profitable after 3 months of trading (longest record ever). The goal is to achieve 100% returns in a year, then I'll put in some serious-er cash (current capital investment of $250).
Edit 2: Again, I've changed up my strategy countlessly. Just check out the more recent posts, haha...
Yours,
X
Introduction
Hi there. If you've found your way here, it means you might be somewhat like me - looking for a way to get out of the rat race, yet be able to survive in this little sunny island, with a satisfactory standard of living.
While I'm still doing alright in my regular day job, raising 4 kids, a mortgage, and a wife who stays home isn't easy.
We've tried a few methods, like setting up home businesses, getting my wife to write freelance, etc etc. It helps, but the going is still kinda rough.
Investments were probably another avenue to go - but living off a regular dividend yield of say 8% (which is pretty optimistic if you ask me), would require a capital outlay of about S$1.25m in order to achieve a S$100k annual income. Two issues with that. One - getting S$1.25m might take me many many many years, and two, ensuring a consistent 8% yield isn't as simple as ABC. Furthermore, S$100k a year for 5 of us makes our monthly per capita income S$1,700 - manageable, but by no means comfortable.
And so, this is where I found forex, CFDs, and the power of leveraging.
As I read up more and more about this financial instrument that's seemingly shrouded in mystery and jargon, I found my eyes opened to a world I never knew. Every day, I learned new things. And every day, I began earning (and losing).
This blog is then to record my journey towards financial freedom via CFDs, and I hope you find some interesting nuggets here and there too.
Yours,
X
While I'm still doing alright in my regular day job, raising 4 kids, a mortgage, and a wife who stays home isn't easy.
We've tried a few methods, like setting up home businesses, getting my wife to write freelance, etc etc. It helps, but the going is still kinda rough.
Investments were probably another avenue to go - but living off a regular dividend yield of say 8% (which is pretty optimistic if you ask me), would require a capital outlay of about S$1.25m in order to achieve a S$100k annual income. Two issues with that. One - getting S$1.25m might take me many many many years, and two, ensuring a consistent 8% yield isn't as simple as ABC. Furthermore, S$100k a year for 5 of us makes our monthly per capita income S$1,700 - manageable, but by no means comfortable.
And so, this is where I found forex, CFDs, and the power of leveraging.
As I read up more and more about this financial instrument that's seemingly shrouded in mystery and jargon, I found my eyes opened to a world I never knew. Every day, I learned new things. And every day, I began earning (and losing).
This blog is then to record my journey towards financial freedom via CFDs, and I hope you find some interesting nuggets here and there too.
Yours,
X
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