Latest Strategy

Been continuing to read up and refine my strategy. Have come up with a pretty good one I feel:

Buy at RSI 1min 30, but only when Bollinger Band (BB) is below the default lower threshold; sell when RSI is 70 but only when BB is above the higher threshold.

Exit when tgt is met, or when RSI hits the opposite number. Can afford to keep holding if the RSI swing is still earning a profit, cos it would probably rebound again.

Yours,

X

16 Mar 2017 - 0.77

Wow. Today the AUD rose back above 0.77. This means that had I not closed out my position on 3 Mar, I wouldn't have lost all that money. Bittersweet feelings really. On one hand, I'm upset I didn't hold. On the other, it means my system still works! Oh well, the journey will continue another day...

Yours,

X

RSI M1 Strategy

After back testing this strategy, it seems to work pretty well. Going long at 30 and short at 70, closing each position regardless when it hits 70 and 30 respectively. Let's keep testing this out.

Yours,

X

9 Mar 2017 - Bears are at it

Whoa. 0.752 when I checked in today. We're going back down. RSI 1 day still around 40, so we might still see it heading south a little. Resistance probably at around 0.75, previously hit in Jan.

Somehow, observing as an outsider is much more peaceful. Still, I'm looking forward to the day when I've got enough spare funds to make a meaningful "comeback". Heh.

Yours,

X

7 Mar 2017 - 0.763

So today saw the AUD recover to 0.763. Again, had I waited it out like a good boy, I could have recouped even more losses. Would've been less that a S$2k loss, i.e. an overall profit still since the start of the journey.

Still, peace of mind is priceless. And again it validates my system (so to speak), that if you can hold out, you'll probably be fine.

Yours,

X

3 Mar 2017 - close

Once again, the earlier lesson learnt was not applied. Having closed out my positions at 0.754, turns out the AUD closed today at 0.759. Had I had the guts to stick to my system, at the very least I would have recouped half of my losses. A shame? Well, kind of. But in the grander scheme of things, it makes me confident that CFDs can still indeed be a viable source of income. As long as you're disciplined, and actually look at your positions while they're open, it would prevent too many heart attacks! Still, peace of mind is priceless, and I had a really good sleep last night!

Yours,

X

3 Mar 2017 - losses confirmed

AUD hit 0.75425. I went into a margin call, so decided to cut losses. Lost about S$5k in total. But with some holding power, could have trimmed that by abt S$750 as the rally finally began right then and it's back up at 0.755. But oh well, at least overall it's still not too bad. The question is whether my heart can still take this, haha!

Yours,

X

3 Mar 2017 - not good

Yesterday might be an expensive lesson in discipline. I have a generic rule - no trading at home, and I generally don't like going long (due to the RSI 1 day being quite high).

However, when my resistance line alert was triggered at abt 1630hrs, I tried for a quick 2 pip limit buy at 0.76511. RSI (1 min) wasn't too good, abt 40+, but I went anyway. And it just kept dropping. Woke up today to see a huge S$5k paper loss. Well I've got abt 1k more before I end up in margin call. Overall, I'd say this investment journey is still break even as I've made some money on the stock exchange as well. So yeah, this might really be the end. We'll just have to wait and see.

Yours,

X

2 Mar 2017 - S$180

Woke up this morning and saw that the AUD/USD rate was at 0.768. Now I normally don't trade before 0830hrs Singapore time, cos that's when most ABS reports are released in Canberra that might cause spikes in the rates. Also the spread becomes about 1.5 pips, more than double the 0.6 that I usually trade on. However, here comes the benefit of understanding one currency pair well - I knew that the RSI (1 day) is at 60+, so that's a long term downtrend. I also knew from yesterday that it hit 0.77 for a bit, before dropping to 0.74. So 0.768 was pretty high if you ask me. I saw it drop to 0.76796 and I decided to just go for it, without checking the candles or RSI.

At the same time, I'm not that brave right - so instead of going on my usual US$5 contract, I sold a US$2 contract. Reason is this - if I'm wrong and the price spikes, I can still go in again at 0.77, and whatever earnings I make from that second position, should be able to cover the losses from the first position. And if it goes waaaay beyond 0.77, I would have lost my account anyway, so it doesn't matter.

At the same time, I didn't want to have to keep taking positions throughout the day to hit my target of S$140. So instead of my usual 2 pip take profit, I went for 6 pips instead. Should have been 5 pips based on my target, but well, if it can drop to 5 pips, it should hit 6 pips. Besides, that wouldn't have brought me near the day's low at all, so why not.

Lo and behold, 15 mins later, I got a buzz for the auto close. Kicking myself, cos if I'd gone with US$5, I would have made S$400 odd today. Kicking myself cos right now, it's at 0.7662 - so if I hadn't taken profit so early, I would have made even more - S$380 on a US$2, or S$1,350 on a US$5.

But hey, I have a plan, and I'm sticking to it. All done for the day.

Then I spotted an entry point at 0.76511. RSI (1 min) was at 30, so I bought US$5 2 pip limit. But then I had to go charge my phone and as you know by now, I don't really like buying, so I wasn't too confident just leaving it alone. I then closed the position when it broke even. When I returned to my phone later though, my 2 pip limit alert was triggered, so it was a missed opportunity, but hey yet another verification of my system. So all in all, still good :)

224 days to go.

Yours,

X