Bounce off the falling wedge?

Here we go perhaps? 30 pip rise from the equilibrium observed on Friday. Double green as well on Friday and Saturday. So probably will be looking for MACD crosses upwards, RSI-30, and scalping long positions towards the established equilibrium. Trade safe!

Yours,

X

3.3% gain - 58% overall since 9 Feb 18

15 minute scalp. Saw it bounce off 0.755 twice, so assumed it to be the equilibrium. Waited for 0.7555, observed and finally went in short at 0.7558. Happened to check in 15min later, saw the profit, and took it. Record gain is extending! Trade safe.

Yours,

X

Use of MACD and RSI - Strategy Update

I used to trade off so many indicators, that I thought it was impossible to comprehend. Then I started this strategy which kept my charts totally clean. However I realised that people used indicators to trade, so since the indicators tell them what to do, they would form the basis of the trend, only getting caught out by greed, emotions, and stophunts.

So now I use a combination. Here's my latest trading strategy:

1. Only trade with what you can lose entirely. This helps deal with emotions. I also don't have to keep observing the charts and can go about my day job.

2. Trade with (big) stops. This deals with emotions and stophunts. I personally trade with 5 pip limits and 50 pip stops. It's a poor R:R but scalping keeps the winning probability high. That currently gives me a return of 5.4% per trade. I also personally only trade the AUD/USD to prevent analysis paralysis, furthermore I don't trade full time.

3. Be cognizant of the channels and EMA bounces. This can cause reversals which go against you.

4. Time MACD crosses (lower time frames - I use anything from 5 min to 1hr) with RSI 30/70, and a 50 candlestick low/high, while trading with the overall trend direction (higher timeframes - I use 1-Day), yet watching for #3.

5. Another potential entry point is 2359hrs on Mondays, Tuesdays and Wednesdays, with a double candlestick direction.

6. There's no such thing as a bad trade. Only a bad system. So give your system a chance and don't let emotions mess with it. Too much.

Trade safe!

Yours,

X

5.4% gain - 54.7% overall since 9 Feb 18

Perfect scalp. After seeing it drop to 0.756 yet again, decided to wait for a short entry point. At 0.7568 I went for 5 pips. Hit up to a 14% paper loss but stuck to my guns and the position closed out 3hrs later. I've now hit a new record return on this system. It's back up to 0.758 though, around today's high. So perhaps the equilibrium is ard 0.7572 thereabouts? Trade safe!

Yours,

X

0..7% gain - 49.3% overall since 9 Feb 18

Took a chance that it was a bounce of the wedge. Went long for 5 pips, saw a 4% profit, got greedy, but it suddenly spiralled downwards and I frantically closed out for 0.7%. It's back to 0.756 now, so maybe that's the equilibrium.

Yours,

X

1.2% gain - 48.6% overall since 9 Feb 18

Seemed like a bounce off the falling wedge, so I decided to take a long position today. Saw the equilibrium around 0.7575 so I went long when it hit 0.7573. Saw a paper profit of 2% become a paper loss of 4% as it dipped down to 0.757. After 1.5hrs, I  became worried that the bounce was a stop hunt, so adjusted my take profit to 2 pips. Happened to go in again, saw the 1.2% profit and took it. Had I waited a little longer, I would have hit my 2 pips, but right now it dropped back down to below 0.7573. So perhaps I should be looking at short positions today. 5 more pips and I'll have a new record for my system! Trade safe.

Yours,

X

No trade day

Perfect trade set up yesterday, but I didn't take the trade. Price had hit the bottom of the falling wedge, so was afraid there'd be a rebound. Which there was. Should've taken a long position instead huh. Maybe that should be another rule - trading off the channels, and EMA20/50/200.

Yours,

X

5.2% gain - 47.3% overall since 9 Feb 18

With a supposed equilibrium at 0.767, I got triggered at 0.7675. As I observed it, waiting for a downward move, it went up to 0.768. It hovered there for 10 mins, so I thought it would go back down and took a short position for 5 pips. Carried on up till 0.7685, but I stuck it out and it closed 1.5hrs later. Perfect. Well if I'd stuck to the assumed equilibrium and went for 10 pips, I would've made twice the profit. But I've got another rule which is don't be greedy. Trade safe!

Yours,

X

Equilibrium of 0.757 today?

I set a couple of alerts so that I can chart the movement. 5/10/15 pips above and below the current price. Every time an alert gets triggered, I'll set a new alert accordingly.

So starting at 0.7585, I got triggered at 0.759, then again at 0.7585, suggesting a potential equilibrium. So now I'll wait for another trigger at 0.759, then observe to enter long for 5 pips, trading in the direction of the overall trend.

However, the rest of the day saw a steady drop to 0.7565. But I've finally seen a re-testing of an potential equilibrium, where it went from 0.757 to 0.7565, back up to 0.7575, then down again to 0.757. So I'll now wait for it to pass 0.7575, then put an order 5 pips long at 0.7575, waiting for it to drop back down to 0.757. Trade safe!

Yours,

X

1.5% gain - 42% overall since 9 Feb 2018

Perfect trade set up. Double red. Correct directional trend. Went long for 5 pips. Woke up next day to a 4% paper loss. We might be at channel bottom so was slightly concerned. Happened to check in again at a 1.5% profit and decided to take it. But just as I type this, my limit was hit. Haha. Oh wells, now to observe for a new equilibrium if any. Trade safe!

Yours,

X

1.9% gain - 40.4% overall since 9 Feb 18

Quick fire 4 min trade. Saw it hit 0.7615. Ambitious me would've shorted for 10 pips to the equilibrium, but safe me shorted for 5 pips. However, 4 mins later decided to be extra conservative and manually closed out for the small profit. Turns out I would've indeed hit my 5 pip limit had I waited another 5 mins. And a further 10mins later, it hit the equilibrium of 0.7605. Aargh. Trade safe!

Yours,

X

5.2% gain - 38.5% overall since 9 Feb 18

Obvious equilibrium of 0.7605 today. Price went above and below it about 10 times today, each time deviating by at least 5 pips. I kept wanting to put an order in as I don't observe the charts regularly, but was afraid I'd get caught by a reversal. So sticking to my rule of trading with the trend, I finally found myself chancing upon a 0.7613. I then put in a long order to kick in at 0.761 for 5 pips. Order was filled and trade was successful in an hour, which saw price rise to a high of 0.762, before going back to 0.7605. Trade safe.

Yours,

X

Channel Support?

Might be a reversal going on soon as we hit the bottom of the falling wedge on AUD/USD. Observe and wait. Trade safe.

Yours,

X

Trading the News

Super exciting. I didn't trade but observed the behaviours of other traders. Lotsa AUD news releases today at 0930hrs. I went in at 0925hrs and saw it creep upwards from 0.7586 to 0.7591 at 0929hrs. 4 pips in 4 mins! At the stroke of 0930hrs, woah! Hit a low of 0.758, then rebounded 17 pips to 0.7597.

Too much for my heart to take. I'd rather let the volatility play itself out to a sustainable trend, then trade along with it. Trade safe!

Yours,

X

6% gain - 33.1% overall gain since 9 Feb 18

Perfect trade set up. Double red, went short for 5 pips at 0000hrs. 2 contracts now that my profits are enough to cover the margin. Autoclosed at 0200hrs. 10 pips would've been possible too, but it's OK. Now to see if it breaks 0.76 or starts rebounding back up. Trade safe.

Yours,

X

26.8% loss - 26.8% overall gain since 9 Feb 18

My biggest loss so far. Half my profits gone. Is it time to go back to the drawing board?

Quick review of the bad trade - went against the overall trend, thinking I could scalp the rebound. Secondly, entered a trade at a weird hour. Too confident perhaps? And I hadn't seen enough to establish a proper/accurate equilibrium.

Key is to trade in the overall trend direction methinks. Trade safe!

Yours,

X

Equilibrium of 0.767 today?

Still on a 10% paper loss. Went as high as 15% but it bounced back up to 0.767. Might head north towards 0.768 then! 🤣

Edit: Indeed it hit 0.7683! 2 more pips till my autoclose but it fell back down to 0.767. Dang! But it's OK. My trades have to succeed based on the system and not on checking in regularly - that's the only way to know if the system is a success. Trade safe!

Yours,

X

13% paper loss!

Took a chance at a rebound from 0.7685. Carried on downwards to 0.766! Let the trade breathe. Trade safe!

Edit: 9% paper loss over the weekend. Adjusted my limit to a no loss mark - don't be greedy! 🤣 Although so far every trade I've lost in would have panned out had I waited, I'm still gonna take a conservative view.

Yours,

X

0.768!

Whoa. 30 pip drop in the blink of an eye! That's how the 5 pip scalp works - even if I get the general direction wrong, I can still profit.

So it looks like a serious downtrend again. We were in the channel it appears. But 0.77 is a psychological level, so we might see a rebound. I'd go long again, but when in doubt, just relax :) I'd rather wait till the end of the day for a better confirmation. Don't overtrade!

Yours,

X

2.6% gain - 53.2% overall since 9 Feb 18

Quick fire trade! Over in 6 minutes. It dropped down to 0.7706, so went long for 5 pips and got it! 0.7715 seems to be the equilibrium level today, so scalp in either direction towards it! Trade safe.

Yours,

X

0.2% gain - 50.9% gain overall since 9 Feb 18

So ard 1030hrs I saw it had hit a low of 0.7704,and rebounded to 0.7713. So this seems to be a channel effect for an overall downward trend since Feb 18. Shorted it for a 5 pip limit. It hit 4 pips, then rebounded back up all the way to a 2% paper loss. Waited it out and closed when I hit a 0.2% profit. You never make losses when taking profit ;) besides, that's how much I'd get in a year if I left that in the bank. So not bad at all, haha.

I didn't want to be stuck in a trade and miss out on future trading opportunities. I had thought the equilibrium line was 0.7713, but in fact it might be slightly higher. I'll probably aim to short it when it goes above 0.772, with double red in lower time frames like 10-30mins. Trade safe!

Yours,

X

Massive 80 pip retracement to 0.772

Phew. Got stopped out in my demo account. Now down to just 30% gains there. I think I'll just stick to the previous strategy of trading with the trend with large stops.

Thank goodness I stuck to my rules on the live account. No double bar no trade, even though it seemed like we were on the up and up. Now it's probably gonna rebound, but I'll wait till after 0930hrs to trade in case of any news spikes. Trade safe.

Yours,

X

2% gain - 50.4% gain overall since 9 Feb 18

One of my fastest trades ever. Saw 0.781 retrace to 0.7797. Went for a further 5 pip retracement and got it within 20 min. I like this 5 pip strategy - really more flexible! Trade safe.

Yours,

X

P.S. Total of 25 trades taken during this period. You can check them out below.

Resistance broke?

AUD/USD hit 0.781. Question is, are we looking at a possible resistance? That would mean a potential retracement to 0.775. However, it is on an uptrend, so it might be a resistance turned support. We'll have to wait till tmr/next week to confirm. As of now, it does appear that we might consolidate with 0.778 as a middle ground. A risky me might go for it, but I'll stick to the mon-wed rule for now.

0930hrs saw Australian Economic reports having a 20 pip whipsaw effect. Sometimes I'm so tempted to just give it a go at 0929. Haha... Well, let's just stick to the system yeah. No trading during news releases. Trade safe!

Yours,

X

Bad trade? 48% gain overall since 9 Feb 18

Decided to trade off a bounce. It hit 0.779 so I'm guessing it's heading back down at least to 0.778. No rules followed except my R:R of 10:1 for a 2.5% profit target. But I went in, saw a 0.4% profit and took it! 2 mins later, I would have gained another 1%! And 10 mins later, I would've made my 5 pips. Haha. Fear is a true emotion to battle. Especially when not following your rules. Trade safe!

Yours,

X

Strategy Adjustment to 5 pip gain - 47.6% overall since 9 Feb 18

So we're seeing quite the sideways market again. I feel that I'm missing out on a lot of opportunities. As such, I adjusted to a 5pip limit, 50pip stop. This gives me more leeway to enter trades.

So now with a general uptrend, I went long at 0.777 at around 1330hrs. At 1930hrs, I was down 12 pips, that's about 8%. Seems to be bouncing off 0.774 so let's hold somemore. And true enough, hit my limit at 2105hrs. Trade safe!

Yours,

X

Retracement indeed

Went in for a quick check, and true enough, 20 pips would've been made. 0.78 retraced to 0.777. Why don't I listen to myself at times! Haha... Well that's because it's not part of the system. And the only bad trades are those that you take when not following your system.

So now that we saw the retracement, it's actually worth reconsidering if the breakout truly results in an uptrend, or if it's just a bounce off the falling wedge. Always wait for confirmation - hence my double bar rule. Trade with the trend, trade with the big boys. Trade safe.

Yours,

X

AUD/USD Breakout

It's happened! AUD/USD broke out of the wedge, cleared previous resistance and hit 0.78! Potential scalping available of 20 pips as it might retrace to 0.778. But we might be on an uptrend now. Out of consolidation.

But me? I'm just gonna stick to the rules. I'm a scaredy cat like that! Trade safe!

Yours,

X

Demo Account Strategy - Following Trade Signals

Gonna use an auto trading system on my demo account strategy. Starting with $19,800. Using ALL IG signals for the 4 pairs - EUR/USD, AUD/USD, EUR/GBP and USD/JPY.

Not very satisfied with the previous strategy of self-analysis on R:R of 2:1 cos I'm still not too confident of myself.

Let's see where this takes us :) Trade safe!

Edit: 5 trades in and I've lost 2, won 1, losing 2. Doesn't look promising, haha!


Yours,

X

Should I have traded off the bounce?

So I closed my position earlier when it hit the falling wedge. Previously when that happened, I told myself to immediately go long the next time cos of the bounce.

Well the next time just happened, and I didn't go long. Haha. A new rule I was not very confident of yet! But indeed, I would've made another 10 pips if I had. Oh well, perhaps this can be another strategy up the sleeve ;) Trade safe!

Yours,

X

4% paper loss to 2% gain - 44.8% overall since 9 Feb 18

Took a rule-based trade. Double green, went long for 8.9 pips at 0.7765. Trade hit a 2% paper gain in minutes, but I decided to let it breathe and went to sleep. Woke up to a 4% paper loss :( The AUD/USD is really bouncing off the falling wedge very reliably. Well I'm gonna hold out again on this one. We're really close to a trend reversal. Trade safe.

Edit: 4hrs later, I was on a 2% gain and decided to close out. Made 1.5% overall on this trade due to interest charged on positions held past 0500hrs. Trade safe!

Yours,

X

1.9% gain - 43.2% overall since 9 Feb 2018

Straightforward double green at 2359hrs so I went long. However at 0615hrs the next day, position still hadn't closed but I was 1.9% up. So I decided to close it out. Trade safe.

Yours,

X

Demo Account Position - Long on EUR/GBP

Saw it at an apparent resistance around the region, so decided to go long at 0.874 for 50pips. Trade safe.

5% gain - Overall 41%

Perfect set up and trading day. Double green, went long at 0002hrs for a 10pip limit, position closed at 0330hrs. Trade safe.

Yours,

X

1% loss - Overall 36% gain

I finally closed my position today. It broke to 0.771. Decided to stop living in fear and turned an original 40% paper loss into an actualized 1% loss. It'd probably have turned a profit, but hey I'm a happy man! Trade safe!

Update: 3hrs later, it dropped back down to 0.769. While I'm happy I took those losses earlier, I did indeed have half a mind to short it, but didn't have the cojones to. Would've made another 4%! 0.771 appears to be a resistance line, tested 3 times already in the past few days.

Yours,

X

AUD/USD Consolidation

It's still hovering around 0.767-0.768 for a couple of days now. Tested 0.7707 twice these last 2 days. I sense a breakout soon!