Tuesday, February 28, 2017

1 Mar 2017 - S$240

So after going through the initial spike, I spotted a sort of resistance line, and with the RSI (1 min) at around 60+ together with the RSI (1 day) at 60+ too, I shorted at about 0.76609. After about an hour, the position handn't closed, so I took a quick glance. Oh man! 2 crazy spikes had happened and I was facing a S$2,500 paper loss! Stuck to my guns though, believing in my system and waited it out. Presto, it dipped back down, and I got a buzz saying the position closed at 0.76589. The day is done. Or so I thought.

Suddenly received an alert that a support line (0.76550) was hit. Checked the charts and saw that it had broken clear through to 0.76432. Decided to make a quick trade and went long for 2 pips. But it being so close to the end of the day, and furthermore going long when the RSI (1 day) is high, there some slight fears. Within the minute, I saw a drop to 0.76390. Then it rebounded to 0.76444. 12 points for a S$100 profit. I decided not to wait it out for another 8 points and S$40, so I closed the position pronto. That being said, right as I'm typing this, my 2 pip limit was hit. Well no worries, I had gained peace of mind, and further verification that my system still works. So all in all, a good day still.

228 days left.

Yours,

X

1 Mar 2017 - Positive GDP Report

Right on the money! The positive growth as released by ABS saw a 20 pip spike at 1130hrs Cranberra time. Trading via news seems to be pretty accurate, at least for GDP that is. Too bad I didn't want to try that today and stayed well out of that time period. Now to observe the stabilising trend and hit the target for the day!

Yours,

X

1 Mar 2017 - GDP report

The Australian GDP report 5206.0 is slated for release in about an hour's time. The last quarter's release (contraction of 0.5%) coincided with a pretty big drop in the exchange rate against the USD. This round, analysts are predicting a positive report, so it might be a good time to go long. Still, let's wait till the release is out, and cross check against generic price action and RSI.

Yours,

X

Monday, February 27, 2017

28 Feb 2017 - S$328

Today was the first day I used strategies other than price action. So I saw that the default 14-period RSI (1 min) was above 70. I checked that against the overall price action for the day and indeed it was quite high. I then waited for the RSI to drop below 60 (that's my indicator of enough downswing), then I went short, for a 2 pip limit. In 5 mins, the position was closed. Of course, an hour later, it was 8 pips lower, meaning I could have in fact made S$560. But hey, I have a plan, and I'm sticking to it.

Later in the day, I spotted an RSI (1 min) at 30. As it broke the 40 mark, I went long and bought 5 contracts with a 2 pip limit. However, because I know that the AUD/USD is at RSI 60+ (1 day), the larger overall trending is downwards. As such, I get kinda scared going long at this period in time. So when my position didn't close within 5 mins, I decided to close early at a S$50 profit, instead of waiting it out. Turns out about 20 mins later, I hit the level - but peace of mind is priceless eh.

Then at about 1700hrs, I spotted an RSI (1 min) at 70. As it broke the 60 mark, I went short and bought 5 contracts with a 2 pip limit. Am I starting to sound like a broken recorder? Well that's the point. At the same time, there was a candlestick confirmation of a trend reversal (doji with long black bar), so I was pretty confident, not to mention the RSI (1 day) hovering at 60+ 70 over the past 2 months. True enough at about 1730hrs, the position closed. Total earnings today S$328. Not too bad at all.

229 days to go.

Yours,

X

27 Feb 2017 - S$140

Today AUD/USD opened around 0.76696. When I woke up, it was at around 0.76700. There seemed to be a downward trend today, so I went short i.e. sold, and closed at 0.76680. This happened within about half an hour. S$140 for the day done before 9am.

However at lunch, I saw an RSI above 70, and since I feel the long term trend of AUD/USD is going downwards, I didn't see the harm in shorting it at 0.76817. After all, that was over a 100 points since opening. Turns out however, a huge uptick was in store and it went above 0.77. This gave me a paper loss of over 200 points i.e. $1,000. However, my instincts told me to wait it out. After all, I had taken a $1,200 lesson earlier in the month. True enough, the position finally closed at about 6pm, and that was another S$140 for the day.

231 days left.

Yours,

X

My Vision

So the goal is to earn S$1,000 a day through CFDs. Right now I'm at S$140 - that's cos I'm trading US$5 contracts at a 2 pip limit (my initial investment was S$15,000). How is this going to pan out?

Firstly, understanding how to trade CFDs is important. Google "candlestick patterns" for a wealth of info. Also "price action" strategies, and "RSI indicators". These are what I'm using. I also picked just one currency pair (AUD/USD), so that I'd be well acquainted with its price action, and not waste my time constantly shopping around. I'm looking to earn money, not really super big money, so it's ok if I miss out on opportunities elsewhere. I'm also aware of the Australian Bureau of Statistics Calendar and that it's announcements are usually at 1130hrs Canberra time (0830hrs in Singapore, but 0930hrs from 2 Apr 2017 onwards due to daylight savings), so I'll usually wait an hour after that to trade in case there are crazy jumps in the exchange rate due to the news. It's also because it was the most affordable margin at S$2,200 per dollar contract on IG. I chose IG as my platform cos of its tight spread (0.6 pips) on AUD/USD, and the fact that it's regulated by MAS.

Next, I use a strategy of taking profit based on limits. The benefits of this is that I don't have to keep staring at the charts all day. Once I open a position, I leave it open till it closes. Some might call it risky, but so far it's been working great.

My CFD journey began on 9 Feb 2017. With an initial investment of $15,000, I made S$1,400 in ten days. But then, I began doubting my system and when I hit a paper loss of S$1,200 one day, I closed it out. This gave me a profit of S$200 in ten days. Still not too bad I thought - until my limit level was hit the next day (I realised this cos my earlier alert was triggered) - and that was my $1,200 lesson. Since then, I've never closed out a losing position, even going so far as to run a S$2,000 paper loss, pay S$50 in overnight fees, and finally ended up with a winning position. That was a long wait, but a rewarding one, affirming my overall strategy and understanding of my chosen forex pair AUD/USD.

So exactly when do I foresee me hitting my goal? Well, if everything pans out, this should happen in 231 weekdays' time. Here's how:

Currently, I'm trading $5 contracts. My safezone is S$3,200 per contract, which gives me a 70 pip (or 700 points) balance to ensure I don't enter a margin call. This means that for a US$5 contract, I need S$5 x 2,200 + $5 X 1000 in my account, i.e. S$16,000. At a profit of S$140 a day, I'll hit S$3,200 in 23 days. That's when I'll up it to a US$6 contract i.e. profit of $168 per day. Then that's gonna take me 19 days to hit S$3,200, before I up it to a US$7 contract. And so on and so forth. So if you do the math, I'm 231 days away from a US$36 contract, which at 2 pips a day gives you S$36 x 20 x 1.4 = S$1,008

Watch this space as I chart my journey to financial freedom!

Edit: If you've seen some of my later posts, you'll know that I've changed my trading system due to some massive losses. I'm now scalping 5 to 10 pips instead (since 9 Feb 18), with 2 rules on entry to prevent overloading. First, only trading at 2359hrs on Mondays, Tuesdays or Wednesdays, and only in the direction of a double bar. Second entry condition is that I also trade in the overall trend direction if I notice an equilibrium that day. So far this system works because I can take losses and still remain profitable (unlike my previous strategy), plus I don't have to constantly observe the charts if I don't have time. This strategy has seen me achieve my biggest gain so far (50% as of Apr 2018), and though that dropped down, I'm still profitable after 3 months of trading (longest record ever). The goal is to achieve 100% returns in a year, then I'll put in some serious-er cash (current capital investment of $250).

Edit 2: Again, I've changed up my strategy countlessly. Just check out the more recent posts, haha...

Yours,

X

Introduction

Hi there. If you've found your way here, it means you might be somewhat like me - looking for a way to get out of the rat race, yet be able to survive in this little sunny island, with a satisfactory standard of living.

While I'm still doing alright in my regular day job, raising 4 kids, a mortgage, and a wife who stays home isn't easy.

We've tried a few methods, like setting up home businesses, getting my wife to write freelance, etc etc. It helps, but the going is still kinda rough.

Investments were probably another avenue to go - but living off a regular dividend yield of say 8% (which is pretty optimistic if you ask me), would require a capital outlay of about S$1.25m in order to achieve a S$100k annual income. Two issues with that. One - getting S$1.25m might take me many many many years, and two, ensuring a consistent 8% yield isn't as simple as ABC. Furthermore, S$100k a year for 5 of us makes our monthly per capita income S$1,700 - manageable, but by no means comfortable.

And so, this is where I found forex, CFDs, and the power of leveraging.

As I read up more and more about this financial instrument that's seemingly shrouded in mystery and jargon, I found my eyes opened to a world I never knew. Every day, I learned new things. And every day, I began earning (and losing).

This blog is then to record my journey towards financial freedom via CFDs, and I hope you find some interesting nuggets here and there too.

Yours,

X