Strategy Update

Felt uncomfortable in my gut as I continued backtesting. I was right. For the period of Dec 17 to May 18 here are the results:

10pip limit 40pip stop: 30pip loss

10pip limit 55pip stop, end of day close: 68pip gain

Not very promising at all. Granted there were some trades that may have worked out if it had gone in my direction before dropping, but I don't have the time to check lower timeframes. For example, if a day saw a high of 80pips and a low of 80pips, I wouldn't know which hit first. I could probably find out, but I always err on the side of caution, so I would consider that day as a losing trade.

However, a simple tweak to the strategy saw a 430pip gain instead over the same period. 20pip limit, 55pip stop. This return was better than the 20pip limit 40pip stop (380pip gain), and the 20pip limit 40pip stop end of day close (224pip gain).

I believe it worked out because I make more per trade, and because 20pips is kind of a stretch goal, it can ride out some stophunts. Let me explain using the following data:

Date

Highest

Lowest

Open

Close

Thursday, 21 December 2017	76985	76535	76666	76960
Wednesday, 20 December 2017	76799	76460	76504	76667
Tuesday, 19 December 2017	76843	76476	76737	76505

So opening a trade on Tuesday, I'd make my 10pips on the earlier strategies. However, this would mean I would open a trade on Wednesday, and that ended up being a losing trade, because I was fooled by the red bar close (stophunt) on Tuesday. However, with the 20pip strategy, my position would have remained open on Wednesday, thus preventing me from making a losing trade that day, because on Thursday, the real trend kicked in, and I would make those 20pips. In fact, while I just made 30% over the past 3 days, it would have been 60% had I started this strategy!

This post has cost me 10%, cos I missed making the trade at 0000hrs today, and right now (0025hrs), I would have made 10pips. However, this is definitely a worthwhile investment. Will come back again next week using the new strategy. I'm definitely using the 20pip limit - but will be considering whether I can change the close to end of the day instead of just a 55pip stop. Will backtest that again and keep you guys updated. Trade safe!

Yours,

X

10.5% gain - 46.5% overall since 9 Feb 18.

Perfect trade. 10 pip limit, 40 pip stop. Trade closed in 2hrs. While I'm still using 9 Feb as my marker, theoretically I should be using 1 May instead as this is a new strategy. Which means I've actually made 40% in 10 days. Not too shabby at all. Increase the returns, don't overtrade. Trade safe!

Yours,

X

10.5% gain - 36% gain overall since 9 Feb 18

Perfect trade. 10 pip limit 40 pip stop at 0000hrs. Closed in 9hrs. Trade safe!

Yours,

X

10.5% gain - 25.5% overall since 9 Feb 18

Perfect trade. Went for 10 pips, followed direction of previous candle, closed in 3hrs.

Created about 6 months' worth of AUD/USD data based on mid price and IG charts, and backtested - still nothing foolproof yet. Preliminary findings showed that I can reduce my stop to 40 pips and stay in the trade till it closes. There were instances where having a 70 pip stop and a 130 pip stop would've turned a losing trade into a winning one, but I think that would be living a little too close to the edge. I'd rather take those losses then. Sharing the database with you guys here :) I left in the blank days cos one of the rules I have is no trade on days before a blank. Trade safe.

Yours,

X

Date	Highest	Lowest	Open	Close	Colour of Bar
Tuesday, 1 May 2018	75509	74725	75430	74883	547
Monday, 30 April 2018	75829	75350	75808	75431	377
Sunday, 29 April 2018
Saturday, 28 April 2018	75846	75632	75652	75829	-177
Friday, 27 April 2018	75731	75321	75589	75651	-62
Thursday, 26 April 2018	75894	75471	75582	75590	-8
Wednesday, 25 April 2018	76096	75518	75981	75581	400
Tuesday, 24 April 2018	76211	75782	76127	75982	145
Monday, 23 April 2018	76832	76087	76750	76126	624
Sunday, 22 April 2018					0
Saturday, 21 April 2018	76765	76631	76699	76694	5
Friday, 20 April 2018	77509	76552	77505	76699	806
Thursday, 19 April 2018	78133	77478	77836	77506	330
Wednesday, 18 April 2018	77982	77439	77683	77835	-152
Tuesday, 17 April 2018	77916	77597	77771	77684	87
Monday, 16 April 2018	77836	77522	77651	77770	-119
Sunday, 15 April 2018					0
Saturday, 14 April 2018	77697	77582	77672	77621	51
Friday, 13 April 2018	78102	77524	77562	77671	-109
Thursday, 12 April 2018	77718	77380	77646	77563	83
Wednesday, 11 April 2018	77733	77395	77618	77645	-27
Tuesday, 10 April 2018	77649	76915	77072	77617	-545
Monday, 9 April 2018	77092	76519	76767	77071	-304
Sunday, 8 April 2018					0
Saturday, 7 April 2018	76848	76675	76827	76739	88
Friday, 6 April 2018	76999	76575	76871	76828	43
Thursday, 5 April 2018	77270	76744	77013	76872	141
Wednesday, 4 April 2018	77177	76626	76732	77012	-280
Tuesday, 3 April 2018	77073	76494	76568	76731	-163
Monday, 2 April 2018	76968	76531	76932	76569	363
Sunday, 1 April 2018					0
Saturday, 31 March 2018	76960	76788	76845	76804	41
Friday, 30 March 2018	77075	76694	76697	76843	-146
Thursday, 29 March 2018	76873	76425	76799	76696	103
Wednesday, 28 March 2018	77165	76531	77158	76798	360
Tuesday, 27 March 2018	77582	76966	77263	77157	106
Monday, 26 March 2018	77489	76949	77048	77264	-216
Sunday, 25 March 2018					0
Saturday, 24 March 2018	77375	76953	77198	76969	229
Friday, 23 March 2018	77443	76867	76948	77197	-249
Thursday, 22 March 2018	77865	76868	77073	76946	127
Wednesday, 21 March 2018	77124	76721	76897	77072	-175
Tuesday, 20 March 2018	77263	76824	77024	76896	128
Monday, 19 March 2018	77204	76864	77188	77025	163
Sunday, 18 March 2018					0
Saturday, 17 March 2018	77350	77094	77324	77132	192
Friday, 16 March 2018	78181	77187	78139	77323	816
Thursday, 15 March 2018	78873	78089	78764	78140	624
Wednesday, 14 March 2018	79170	78458	78806	78760	46
Tuesday, 13 March 2018	78980	78590	78634	78807	-173
Monday, 12 March 2018	78798	78465	78506	78634	-128
Sunday, 11 March 2018					0
Saturday, 10 March 2018	78541	78328	78358	78466	-108
Friday, 9 March 2018	78475	77727	77797	78359	-562
Thursday, 8 March 2018	78392	77780	78091	77796	295
Wednesday, 7 March 2018	78304	77717	78139	78092	47
Tuesday, 6 March 2018	78429	77468	77482	78138	-656
Monday, 5 March 2018	77780	77255	77539	77484	55
Sunday, 4 March 2018					0
Saturday, 3 March 2018	77663	77382	77435	77640	-205
Friday, 2 March 2018	77741	77155	77456	77436	20
Thursday, 1 March 2018	78045	77125	77910	77457	453
Wednesday, 28 February 2018	78197	77809	78096	77909	187
Tuesday, 27 February 2018	78688	77936	78409	78097	312
Monday, 26 February 2018	78938	78258	78329	78408	-79
Sunday, 25 February 2018					0
Saturday, 24 February 2018	78430	78111	78228	78415	-187
Friday, 23 February 2018	78588	78041	78518	78229	289
Thursday, 22 February 2018	78797	77902	78446	78517	-71
Wednesday, 21 February 2018	79092	78385	78995	78447	548
Tuesday, 20 February 2018	79339	78794	79085	78994	91
Monday, 19 February 2018	79358	78973	79054	79086	-32
Sunday, 18 February 2018					0
Saturday, 17 February 2018	79407	78923	79243	79098	145
Friday, 16 February 2018	79889	78919	78956	79244	-288
Thursday, 15 February 2018	79670	78648	78789	78957	-168
Wednesday, 14 February 2018	78902	77730	78596	78788	-192
Tuesday, 13 February 2018	78768	78221	78254	78595	-341
Monday, 12 February 2018	78462	78048	78147	78255	-108
Sunday, 11 February 2018					0
Saturday, 10 February 2018	78207	77731	78015	78140	-125
Friday, 9 February 2018	78307	77589	77967	78014	-47
Thursday, 8 February 2018	78605	77875	78519	77966	553
Wednesday, 7 February 2018	79106	78497	78764	78518	246
Tuesday, 6 February 2018	79405	78353	79390	78766	624
Monday, 5 February 2018	79544	78904	79144	79391	-247
Sunday, 4 February 2018					0
Saturday, 3 February 2018	79604	79178	79420	79238	182
Friday, 2 February 2018	80461	79212	80254	79418	836
Thursday, 1 February 2018	80986	79874	80967	80253	714
Wednesday, 31 January 2018	81170	80462	80858	80966	-108
Tuesday, 30 January 2018	81137	80424	80961	80857	104
Monday, 29 January 2018	81185	80774	81051	80962	89
Sunday, 28 January 2018					0
Saturday, 27 January 2018	81362	80894	80937	81098	-161
Friday, 26 January 2018	81071	80052	80951	80936	15
Thursday, 25 January 2018	81192	80427	80698	80948	-250
Wednesday, 24 January 2018	80834	79797	79975	80697	-722
Tuesday, 23 January 2018	80300	79566	80218	79974	244
Monday, 22 January 2018	80272	79789	79976	80217	-241
Sunday, 21 January 2018					0
Saturday, 20 January 2018	80059	79815	80016	79855	161
Friday, 19 January 2018	80390	79839	79858	80015	-157
Thursday, 18 January 2018	80232	79414	79767	79859	-92
Wednesday, 17 January 2018	79994	79403	79573	79766	-193
Tuesday, 16 January 2018	79791	79370	79725	79574	151
Monday, 15 January 2018	79751	78985	79080	79727	-647
Sunday, 14 January 2018					0
Saturday, 13 January 2018	79248	78829	78920	79162	-242
Friday, 12 January 2018	79051	78480	78739	78921	-182
Thursday, 11 January 2018	78865	78287	78481	78740	-259
Wednesday, 10 January 2018	78677	78082	78202	78480	-278
Tuesday, 9 January 2018	78650	78076	78366	78201	165
Monday, 8 January 2018	78739	78268	78611	78367	244
Sunday, 7 January 2018					0
Saturday, 6 January 2018	78749	78540	78575	78630	-55
Friday, 5 January 2018	78700	78348	78602	78574	28
Thursday, 4 January 2018	78629	78145	78327	78603	-276
Wednesday, 3 January 2018	78435	78051	78316	78328	-12
Tuesday, 2 January 2018	78450	77919	78016	78315	-299
Monday, 1 January 2018					0
Sunday, 31 December 2017					0
Saturday, 30 December 2017	78223	77989	78222	78084	138
Friday, 29 December 2017	78252	77877	77913	78221	-308
Thursday, 28 December 2017	78099	77639	77657	77912	-255
Wednesday, 27 December 2017	77760	77182	77197	77655	-458
Tuesday, 26 December 2017	77267	77016	77028	77199	-171
Monday, 25 December 2017					0
Sunday, 24 December 2017					0
Saturday, 23 December 2017	77212	77107	77176	77153	23
Friday, 22 December 2017	77211	76922	76961	77177	-216
Thursday, 21 December 2017	76985	76535	76666	76960	-294
Wednesday, 20 December 2017	76799	76460	76504	76667	-163
Tuesday, 19 December 2017	76843	76476	76737	76505	232
Monday, 18 December 2017	76765	76401	76555	76738	-183
Sunday, 17 December 2017					0
Saturday, 16 December 2017	76522	76380	76493	76418	75
Friday, 15 December 2017	76947	76489	76671	76492	179
Thursday, 14 December 2017	76752	76011	76132	76672	-540
Wednesday, 13 December 2017	76160	75457	75517	76131	-614
Tuesday, 12 December 2017	75804	75191	75429	75516	-87
Monday, 11 December 2017	75433	65030	75106	75427	-321
Sunday, 10 December 2017					0
Saturday, 9 December 2017	75126	75015	75108	75088	20
Friday, 8 December 2017	75341	75013	75254	75108	146
Thursday, 7 December 2017	75748	75147	75737	75253	484
Wednesday, 6 December 2017	76365	75584	76106	75735	371
Tuesday, 5 December 2017	76541	75894	75958	76107	-149
Monday, 4 December 2017	76143	75793	75935	75956	-21
Sunday, 3 December 2017					0
Saturday, 2 December 2017	76394	75936	75943	76131	-188
Friday, 1 December 2017	76038	75514	75934	75944	-10
Thursday, 30 November 2017	75948	75565	75747	75933	-186
Wednesday, 29 November 2017	76204	75518	75985	75746	239
Tuesday, 28 November 2017	76236	75880	76208	75986	222
Monday, 27 November 2017	76450	75930	76201	76209	-8
Sunday, 26 November 2017					0
Saturday, 25 November 2017	76246	76105	76216	76134	82
Friday, 24 November 2017	76326	76065	76235	76215	20
Thursday, 23 November 2017	76389	75837	75869	76234	-365
Wednesday, 22 November 2017	75962	75551	75807	75868	-61
Tuesday, 21 November 2017	75908	75321	75541	75806	-265
Monday, 20 November 2017	75750	75462	75694	75542	152
Sunday, 19 November 2017					0
Saturday, 18 November 2017	75724	75494	75500	75655	-155
Friday, 17 November 2017	76084	75360	75937	75501	436
Thursday, 16 November 2017	76101	75692	75824	75938	-114
Wednesday, 15 November 2017	76370	75760	76196	75823	373
Tuesday, 14 November 2017	76502	76093	76373	76195	178
Monday, 13 November 2017	76660	76351	76463	76374	89
Sunday, 12 November 2017					0
Saturday, 11 November 2017	76749	76538	76735	76598	137
Friday, 10 November 2017	76953	76550	76596	76734	-138
Thursday, 9 November 2017	76941	76494	76695	76595	100
Wednesday, 8 November 2017	76851	76272	76384	76694	-310
Tuesday, 7 November 2017	77011	76285	76614	76382	232
Monday, 6 November 2017	76676	76382	76534	76613	-79
Sunday, 5 November 2017					0
Saturday, 4 November 2017	76528	76417	76490	76499	-9
Friday, 3 November 2017	77236	76389	77218	76491	727
Thursday, 2 November 2017	77301	76650	76748	77219	-471
Wednesday, 1 November 2017	76962	76482	76676	76746	-70
Tuesday, 31 October 2017	76994	76395	76777	76675	102
Monday, 30 October 2017	76886	76554	76763	76778	-15
Sunday, 29 October 2017					0
Saturday, 28 October 2017	76791	76560	76580	76775	-195
Friday, 27 October 2017	76897	76248	76875	76579	296
Thursday, 26 October 2017	77200	76735	76933	76874	59
Wednesday, 25 October 2017	77963	76921	77792	76934	858
Tuesday, 24 October 2017	78251	77704	78056	77793	263
Monday, 23 October 2017	78348	77962	78202	78055	147
Sunday, 22 October 2017					0
Saturday, 21 October 2017	78260	78090	78108	78164	-56
Friday, 20 October 2017	78836	78082	78766	78109	657
Thursday, 19 October 2017	78843	78359	78360	78767	-407
Wednesday, 18 October 2017	78587	78188	78314	78361	-47
Tuesday, 17 October 2017	78630	78181	78581	78312	269
Monday, 16 October 2017	78909	78566	78845	78582	263
Sunday, 15 October 2017					0
Saturday, 14 October 2017	78946	78793	78840	78899	-59
Friday, 13 October 2017	78975	78172	78252	78839	-587
Thursday, 12 October 2017	78360	77707	77805	78253	-448
Wednesday, 11 October 2017	78096	77745	77880	77807	73
Tuesday, 10 October 2017	77972	77497	77638	77879	-241
Monday, 9 October 2017	77833	77473	77768	77640	128
Sunday, 8 October 2017					0
Saturday, 7 October 2017	77782	77616	77642	77764	-122
Friday, 6 October 2017	78068	77329	77980	77643	337
Thursday, 5 October 2017	78661	77945	78558	77981	577
Wednesday, 4 October 2017	78755	78224	78268	78558	-290
Tuesday, 3 October 2017	78369	77852	78236	78269	-33
Monday, 2 October 2017	78479	77952	78404	78236	168
Sunday, 1 October 2017					0
Saturday, 30 September 2017	78473	78301	78395	78330	65
Friday, 29 September 2017	78607	78166	78288	78396	-108
Thursday, 28 September 2017	78834	77994	78649	78289	360
Wednesday, 27 September 2017	78998	78360	78786	78652	134
Tuesday, 26 September 2017	79494	78692	79358	78787	571
Monday, 25 September 2017	79741	79327	79465	79356	109
Sunday, 24 September 2017					0
Saturday, 23 September 2017	79755	79568	79751	79646	105
Friday, 22 September 2017	79866	79080	79393	79752	-359
Thursday, 21 September 2017	81044	79168	80690	79392	1298
Wednesday, 20 September 2017	80746	79949	80129	80691	-562
Tuesday, 19 September 2017	80155	79397	79657	80129	-472
Monday, 18 September 2017	80356	79641	80024	79656	368
Sunday, 17 September 2017					0
Saturday, 16 September 2017	80086	79936	80066	80023	43
Friday, 15 September 2017	80359	79722	79789	80068	-279
Thursday, 14 September 2017	80166	79554	79864	79790	74